March 25 2008
Mobile web use reaches tipping point
Mobile internet use in Europe is set to surge over the next five years, as 3G-enabled phones and increased consumer interest fuel growth.
A new five-year forecast from Forrester Research, predicts that 38 percent of all mobile users in Western Europe will user mobile internet services by 2013.
The growth in adoption means that 125 million Europeans will access the web regularly from their mobile phone - triple the number that do so today.
The proliferation of 3.5G-enabled devices will be a key driver of this growth, as these mobiles are set to overtake GSM-only and GPRS phones by 2010.
According to Forrester, one in four consumers will own a 3.5G-enabled phone by 2013.
"The mobile internet is finally reaching the tipping point," said Pete Nuthall, Forrester Research analyst.
"But deploying high-speed mobile networks and rolling out advanced handsets are not enough to spark demand - our data shows that less than half of 3G phone owners use the 3G capability on their phone.
"To drive the mobile internet, operators will need to push flat-rate data plans, increase the number of relevant services and applications, and introduce new devices that provide a better user experience," Nuthall added.
Forrester’s “European Mobile Forecast: 2008 To 2013” is based on interviews with 16 mobile operators and a survey of 22,000 consumers across France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, and the UK.
The Forrester report forecasts mobile Internet adoption across 17 individual countries:
Austria, Italy, the UK, and the Nordics in the lead for 3G adoption. More than 60% of mobile phone users in these countries will have either a 3G or 3.5G handset by the end of 2010. These countries will also be the quickest to adopt 3.5G, reaching penetration rates of more than 25% by the end of 2013.
France, Germany, and the Netherlands are middle-of-the-road countries. By the end of 2010, 3G and 3.5G penetration rates in these countries will range from 50% to 60%. However, by the end of 2013, these countries will be on par with the leading countries in terms of overall 3G adoption, albeit with a lower share of 3.5G phones — at around 20% of mobile phone users.
Belgium, Greece, and Ireland will be slow to catch up. Less than 50% of consumers in these countries will have either a 3G or 3.5G handset by the end of 2010. And by the end of 2013, less than 20% of mobile phone users will have a 3.5G device.
