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January 15 2007
Did Hitwise's predictions for Christmas come true?
High street retailers were among the biggest gainers this Christmas, experiencing some of the largest increases in market share of UK internet visits among the top 100 retailers, according to competitive intelligence service Hitwise. Marks & Spencer, HMV.co.uk and Woolworths were among the top performers.
In September, Hitwise issued a series of predictions for Christmas retailing online. Below, in its own words, is the company's review of how those predictions compare with what actually happened:
Prediction: Share of category visits will rise 8% year-on-year
In December 2006, visits to the Hitwise Retail Index (an index of 100 leading retail websites) were up 5% year-on-year, cementing a strong year for online retail in the UK. This is slightly lower than the 8% we predicted in September.
Prediction: High Street retailers will continue to make gains against pure-play providers
High street retailers were among the biggest gainers this Christmas, experiencing some of the largest increases in market share of UK internet visits among the top 100 retailers. In particular, market share of UK internet visits increased year on year in December by:
(IR - M&S had a good third quarter with online sales up over 70%. The website was its busiest 'store' in the quarter with over 9 million customers visiting the site over the period. Hitwise said that advertising and strong offers seems to have driven visitors to Woolwoorths, HMV and Marks & Spencer.)
Prediction: More last minute shopping
Hitwise predicted that, whilst visits to retail websites would again peak in the second week of December (week to 9th December 2006), the peak would straddle the second and third weeks, as opposed to the first and second weeks as they had in 2005. Visits did peak in the week to 9th December 2006 and whilst they declined slightly the following week, remained stronger than they had in 2005, reflecting the trend to more last minute shopping.
Prediction: Search Engines will Account for 35% of upstream visits to retail websites
In December 2006, search engines accounted for 36% of upstream visits to retail websites, representing a 20% increase year-on-year. We also predicted that this growth would be led by Google and Yahoo! Search and indeed... Google accounted for 28% of upstream visits to retail websites in December, up 28% year-on-year, and Yahoo! Search accounted for 2.4% of upstream visits, up 60% year-on-year
Emma Herrod
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